JGB Futures Contracts
JGB futures on OSE, contract specifications, and trading
JGB Futures: The Market's Main Event
While cash JGBs are traded over-the-counter (OTC), the most liquid and visible part of the JGB market is the futures market, which trades on the Osaka Exchange (OSE), part of the Japan Exchange Group (JPX).
A JGB futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell a "notional" JGB at a predetermined price on a future date. It is the primary tool used by domestic and foreign investors to hedge interest rate risk or speculate on the direction of JGB yields.
JGB Futures Contracts Traded on OSE
The OSE lists four main JGB futures contracts across different maturities. Each serves distinct market participants with varying hedging needs:
- Notional: ¥100M, 6% coupon
- Delivery Basket: 7-11 years
- Status: Benchmark contract
- Users: All market participants
This is the primary contract reported in financial news as "the JGB market." Over 95% of JGB futures trading volume occurs here.
- Notional: ¥100M, 3% coupon
- Delivery Basket: 4-5.25 years
- Status: Medium-term contract
- Users: Banks, asset managers
Lower notional coupon (3% vs 6%) reflects shorter duration. Used for hedging medium-term interest rate exposure.
- Notional: ¥10M, 6% coupon
- Delivery Basket: 7-11 years (same as standard)
- Status: Retail-friendly
- Users: Smaller hedgers, retail
One-tenth the size of standard 10Y contract. Allows precise position sizing and lower capital requirements.
- Notional: ¥100M, 6% coupon
- Delivery Basket: 15-21 years
- Status: Super-long contract
- Users: Life insurers, pensions
Critical for institutions with long-dated liabilities (pension payouts 20+ years out). Higher duration sensitivity.
Why a 6% Notional Coupon? Understanding the Historical Standard
If you look at the contract specifications, you'll notice something puzzling: JGB futures use a 6% notional coupon, yet actual JGB yields have been below 2% (often below 1%) for decades. Why this mismatch?
The 6% Notional Coupon: Historical Context
When JGB futures were first listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 1985, Japanese interest rates were significantly higher. 10-year JGB yields ranged from 5-8% during this period. The 6% notional coupon was chosen as a round number close to prevailing market rates.
Parallel: US Treasury futures, launched in the 1970s when US yields were 7-10%, also use a 6% notional coupon for the same reason.
The notional coupon is not a forecast of where rates "should" be. It's simply a standardized reference for pricing calculations. Think of it as a "common denominator" that allows bonds with different coupons to be compared fairly.
Analogy: It's like setting the baseline temperature at 0°C for freezing water. It doesn't mean all temperatures must be 0°C—it's just a fixed reference for calibration.
The Conversion Factor (CF) system adjusts each bond's value relative to the 6% notional. A bond with a 0.5% coupon will have a CF around 0.92, meaning it's worth 92% of the notional. This scaling ensures fair pricing regardless of actual coupon rates.
Formula Reference: See Section 2.7 for the full conversion factor calculation. The 6% coupon is the discount rate used in that formula.
Exchanges could change the notional coupon, but it would cause massive disruption:
- Legacy Systems: Decades of trading infrastructure, pricing models, and risk systems are built around 6%. A change would require global recalibration.
- Conversion Factors Work: The CF system already handles the adjustment perfectly. There's no functional benefit to changing the notional coupon.
- Market Inertia: Traders, algorithms, and clearing systems all expect 6%. Changing it would risk errors and confusion.
- Historical Continuity: Keeping 6% allows comparisons across decades of data without adjustment.
For practical trading and hedging, the 6% notional has zero impact on profitability or risk. Here's why:
- Invoice Price Adjusts Automatically: When you deliver a bond, you receive: (Futures Price × CF) + Accrued Interest. The CF already accounts for the difference between 6% and the actual coupon.
- Duration Hedging Still Works: The Modified Duration of the futures contract is calculated based on the CTD bond (the actual bond likely to be delivered), not the notional 6% bond.
- P&L Unaffected: Your profit/loss depends on futures price changes, not the notional coupon. A 1 tick move = ¥10,000 regardless of whether the notional is 6% or 0.6%.
Contract Specifications (10-year Standard)
The contract specifications are the rules of the contract, set by the exchange.
| Specification | Details |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Osaka Exchange (OSE) |
| Contract Size (Notional) | ¥100,000,000 (¥100 million) face value |
| Notional Bond | 10-year JGB with a 6.0% coupon |
| Price Quotation | Per ¥100 face value (e.g., 101.50) |
| Tick Size (Minimum Fluctuation) | ¥0.01 per ¥100 |
| Tick Value | ¥10,000 (¥0.01 / 100 * ¥100,000,000) |
| Contract Months | Quarterly: March, June, September, December (5 quarters out) |
| Last Trading Day | The business day before the 20th of the contract month. |
| Settlement Method | Physical Delivery of eligible JGBs (see CTD section). |
| Delivery Basket | Standard 10-year coupon JGBs with 7 to 11 years of remaining maturity as of the delivery date. |
How JGB Futures Are Used
JGB futures serve three primary purposes in the market:
- Speculation: Traders take directional bets on interest rate movements using leverage
- Long futures = betting yields will fall (prices rise)
- Short futures = betting yields will rise (prices fall)
- Each tick (¥0.01) = ¥10,000 per contract
- Hedging: Bond portfolio managers offset interest rate risk
- Hold ¥5B in JGBs? Sell 50 futures contracts to hedge
- If yields rise, bond losses offset by futures gains
- Hedge effectiveness typically 80-90% due to basis risk
- Arbitrage: Exploit pricing inefficiencies between cash and futures markets (covered in Chapter 7)
References
- Japan Exchange Group (JPX) / Osaka Exchange (OSE). "JGB Futures Contract Specifications." Available at: https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/derivatives/products/jgb/jgb-futures/01.html.