Chapter 1 1.9

Bond Pricing Examples

Step-by-step examples of pricing JGBs under different scenarios

Worked Example: Pricing a 5-Year JGB

Let’s price a typical 5-year JGB using hypothetical market conditions to illustrate the pricing formula:

ℹ️ Note: This example uses simplified numbers for teaching purposes. For a real-world example with current market data, see Example 2 below.

  • Face value: ¥1,000,000
  • Annual coupon rate: 0.50%
  • Assumed market yield: 1.25% (annual)

Step 1: Calculate the semi-annual coupon payment:

\[\begin{align} C &= \frac{¥1,000,000 \times 0.005}{2} \\ &= ¥2,500 \end{align}\]

Step 2: Convert annual yield to semi-annual:

\[\begin{align} r &= \frac{0.0125}{2} \\ &= 0.00625 \text{ per period} \end{align}\]

Step 3: Calculate number of periods:

\[\begin{align} n &= 5 \text{ years} \times 2 \\ &= 10 \text{ periods} \end{align}\]

Step 4: Apply the pricing formula:

\[P = \sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{¥2,500}{(1.00625)^t} + \frac{¥1,000,000}{(1.00625)^{10}}\] \[\begin{align} P &\approx ¥24,162 + ¥939,596 \\ &= ¥963,757 \end{align}\]

Result: This bond trades at a discount to par (below ¥1,000,000) because its coupon rate (0.50%) is lower than the market yield (1.25%). New buyers pay less upfront to compensate for receiving lower coupon payments.

Additional Pricing Examples: Different Bond Scenarios

Example 2: Current 10-Year Benchmark JGB

📊 Live Data: This example uses JGB #380 (1.7% coupon, maturity 2035-09-20) from the November 2025 auction.

Using the current benchmark 10-year JGB:

  • Issue: JGB #380
  • Face value: ¥1,000,000
  • Coupon: 1.7% annual
  • Maturity: 2035-09-20
  • Assumed market yield: 1.66% annual (hypothetical scenario where bond trades at small premium)
  • Periods: 20 semi-annual

Interpretation: In this scenario, if the market yield were slightly below the coupon (1.66% vs 1.7%), the bond would trade at a small premium above par because investors would pay more for the higher coupon payments.

Example 3: Super-Long 30-Year JGB

  • Face value: ¥1,000,000
  • Coupon: 2.50% annual (older bond)
  • Assumed market yield: 3.07% annual
  • Periods: 60 semi-annual
  • Result: Price ≈ ¥888,769 (trades at steep discount because coupon « yield)

Example 4: Short-Term 2-Year JGB

  • Face value: ¥1,000,000
  • Coupon: 1.00% annual
  • Assumed market yield: 0.95% annual
  • Periods: 4 semi-annual
  • Result: Price ≈ ¥1,000,988 (trades very close to par because coupon ≈ yield and short maturity)

Understanding Bonds as Portfolios of Zero-Coupon Bonds

Some textbooks describe a coupon-bearing bond as a "portfolio of zero-coupon bonds." This is a powerful conceptual insight. Let's see why using our 5-year JGB example with ¥2,500 semi-annual coupons:

Expanded Form (What You're Really Buying):

\[\begin{align} P &= \frac{¥2,500}{(1.00625)^1} + \frac{¥2,500}{(1.00625)^2} + \frac{¥2,500}{(1.00625)^3} + ... + \frac{¥2,500}{(1.00625)^{10}} + \frac{¥1,000,000}{(1.00625)^{10}} \\ &= \text{10 separate "mini-bonds" paying ¥2,500} + \text{1 "mini-bond" paying ¥1,000,000} \end{align}\]

Why This Matters:

  • Each term is essentially a zero-coupon bond (a bond that pays only at maturity, no coupons)
  • The coupon bond is just a bundled portfolio of these zeros
  • This insight allows traders to "strip" bonds—separating the coupons and principal to sell as individual zero-coupon securities
  • It also explains why bond math uses summation notation (∑): you're literally adding up the present value of each individual payment

Key Insights:

  • Longer maturities show greater price sensitivity to yield changes
  • Bonds with coupons far from market yields trade at larger premiums/discounts
  • Current JGB market (Oct 2025) shows many older low-coupon bonds trading at discounts due to rising yields
  • A coupon bond is conceptually a portfolio of zero-coupon bonds
  • Euler’s number represents the mathematical limit of continuous compounding